Random Thoughts While Watching the TSN Pregame Show for the Leafs Opener

NHL has the worst marketing department on the planet.... I am more inclined to buy tampons than watch hockey these days. Why don’t they just do what every other professional sport does. SHOW SICK HIGHLIGHTS. You have the fastest game on earth, combining skill, speed and strength. SHOW SICK HIGHLIGHTS.

Raycroft starting for the Leafs… what a junk organization.

I love the Leafs. But the head office is retarded, and many leaf fans are also retarded. I wonder how long it is going to be until Leafs Nation enters a team in the Special Olympics.

Most of the problem with Leafs Nation is the quality of the Toronto Sports Media. It’s no wonder that Raps fans tend to be better informed. IMHO Grange and Smith are two of the best in the city.

Jeff Blair covering the Jays, is also good. We’ll see if that has any impact on the fans when they are competitive and Toronto starts caring about them again,

Pierre McGuire knows his stuff. His problem is that he is an annoying doofus. What the fuck is a speed quotient? Do you know Pierre? Then please try to refrain from using that term.

Glen Healy is good.

Bob MacKenzie is good.

David Randorff isn’t exactly a genius when it comes to hockey, but he is a slick broadcaster.

James Duffy should be hosting a children’s show.

And if there is one human being on the planet who has demonstrated himself to be inept when it comes to hockey knowledge, it is Mike Milbury.

Glad that Pickering Ontario’s finest, Glen Healy is on this broadcast. How hard can it be to find people who know hockey and who aren’t annoying.

48^th highlanders playing the bag pipes on opening night in Toronto: ain’t nothing wrong with that.

Bonus quip: Why Britney Lost Her Kids: Is it really necessary to write this article? Seems somewhat self evident…

Jim Cuddy from Blue Rodeo singing the national anthem. Rock on. Pretty funny hearing the silenced while he switches to the French version. I have mumbled my way through those parts many a time. 8 seconds into the season before Antropov gets an obstruction penalty.

The only surprising thing about this is that Antropov was playing in the first 8 seconds of the season.

I'm out, enjoy the season!

An Unfortunate Situation

So I’ve been in Dublin for two weeks. Since my last entry, I secured employment. My place of work is very cool, and the best part is the people. I work with two great Irish girls. Both are just nice people, who are great to share a chat with: good craic as the Irish would say. So far they have both been very helpful and each has done their part to protect me from the slings and arrows of office politics.

The one girl, sadly, is going through a really tough time. She is engaged to be married, and her father is quite ill. Talk about the good and the bad. I’m unsure what his specific problem(s) is(/are) but I do know that he has a build up of fluid: talk about the ugly.

Her wedding was initially supposed to be in November. However, in the interest of having her father walk her down the aisle, and due to the condition of her father, they have booked an earlier date for next Friday: a week from today.

Earlier this week her father was released from hospital after a long stay. However, in the two nights since, he has been vomiting tonnes and has not been able to sleep much.

Anita has just received word that her father has now been re-admitted to the hospital. Right now it is only a precautionary visit, but Anita is worried. Her first phone call was to her Husband, in which she updated him on the situation. She has since left to visit her Father at the hospital.

This is where I am supposed to say something about life and family: but anyone who has just read this needs no reminder of their value and importance.

All the best to Anita and her family.

This Hostel Life

This is the sixth day that I have been in Dublin. So far I have spent my entire trip in hostels or Pubs. While I will be frequenting Pubs for a while yet, probably until my doctor advises that I stop doing so, it seems that my hostel life has been put on a temporary hiatus.
And I'm not perfectly happy about it. I'm not upset, because I had to lug more luggage than your average rented Mexican mule all the way across Dublin in the rain, while my travel partner Pete sauntered nonchalantly with a more reasonably size travel sack and a wimpy back pack that looks like it should have a picture of Dora the explorer on it.
No. While that walk was truly rubbish, the reason that I am somewhat discontented is that I love the hostel life and will miss it. Hostels are such a cool scene. In six days I've met people of all types of cultures and all walks of life, speaking all types of languages about all types of walks in the rain: Which apparently are the only type of walk you can go for in Dublin.
Not only have I met a lot of absolutely wicked people in the hostels, and if i ever need a place to stay in Valencia, or Mexico City, or Ancaster Ontario, I know I'm covered.
Probably my favorite night began at 8 pm with me, by myself, enjoying a quiet plate of spaghetti and a nice cheap bottle of European wine. Granted, this wine was neither nice nor cheap, but it was a pleasant meal all the same. I finally left the kitchen at 11:30, after being left by the hostel staff: though they were more like the hostile staff. Which would have sucked, except there were a whole bunch of us on a mission to find an Irish pub for some live music and pints. Along for the ride were: two Mexican girls who has spent the last couple of years in Italy; Andrea, an Italian guy who I immediately liked, after he stated that he liked Bargniani and that he thought the Raps will win the Eastern Conference next year; A brother and sister from Toronto who had spent the past while touring the Emerald Isle; and Pete.
This night was quite the blast. We bounced from bar to bar, while our troop dropped like flies. After the bar, Pete and I walked the Mexicano's to catch a bus to the airport. When we got home, Pete went to bed... while I hung out for an hour or so with some pretty cool, but kind of annoying girls from Maryland. (j/k if they read this.) I finally went to bed at 6:30 Dublin time, which actually would have probably been a reasonable time to call it had I been back home.
However, such fantastic experiences, which are facilitated by the hostel atmosphere will be few and far between for the next two months. Tonight we checked into a flat, which I will stay for the next two months.
And so, my vacation shifts gears, and I switch from practical matters such a wine and women, to such tedious things as working and paying too much for rent. But don't feel too bad for me: My flat is crazy old , crazy expensive, and crazy close to the Dublin City center. Both Pete and I are unemployed, and anxious to get some cash flow to pay for this vacation of ours. Then, in two months I can return to my preferred adventure seeking, globe trotting, care free, financially unfeasible mode of vacationing.
Cheers.

The Lyle Lovette Rally Monkey

Chacin in Control

Last night Gustavo Chacin took on Carlos Silva, the reigning major league “control king”. Carlos Silva posted a league leading walk per nine of 0.9, which is ridiculous.

In that same year, Gustavo Chacin posted a less ridiculous walks per nine of 3.1. That of course was Chacin’s rookie year.

Let’s talk about Gustavo for a bit now. If you know anything about Chacin, you know he came on like gang busters two years ago destroying AA ball, and leading the minors in victories. He finished the year with two AAA starts, and two MLB starts. In one of his starts, he brought his herky jerky delivery to Yankee Stadium and made the mighty Bronx Bombers look like an over matched little league team.

The next year he broke the season with the big club, and posted a 3.72 ERA in over 200 innings. However, there were concerns that he was pitching over his head. For starters, he was walking too many people. His BB/9 was 3.1, which ballooned his WHIP to 1.39.

There were many concerns that this year the fairy dust would rub off and Chacin would see his ERA move up to match his peripheral stats. Others countered that Gustavo was touch with base runners on. He shut down the run. Maybe he was one of those pitchers who would continue to pitch better than his peripheral statistics suggest.

Now I like Chacin. However, it is very difficult in this league to post a sub four ERA with a whip of 1.39. Something has to give. For Chacin to maintain his effectiveness, he will have to walk less people. In essence, he will have to be more like Carlos Silva. If he can do that, he will become one of the most valuable back of the rotation pitchers in the league.

Last night, Chacin pitched 6 2/3 innings allowing six hits and one walk. Of his 88 pitches, 60 were for strikes. It was a fantastic first outing, especially considering he didn’t pitch much in spring training.

The X Man

As I was reflecting on the Jays opening series, I was happy with how the new recruits have done. Both Glaus and Overbay jacked homers. And Bo Junior Ryan contributed with two saves.

However, of the big four off season additions, none may impact the Blue Jays fortunes this year than AJ Burnette. Not that the other three are chopped liver. More what I mean is that AJ potential performance this season variability. He could be a CY young candidate, and the best number two starter in the league. Of he could be league average.

AJ was the biggest gamble of all the moves. He has never performed to a level that would warrant a 55 million dollar contract. But he also has one of the most electric arms in the major leagues.

Burnette was notably absent in the second game of the season. He began the year on the DL due to scar tissue breaking off in his elbow. AJ was in action with the Jays high ‘A’ affiliate Dunedin Blue Jays. In four innings of work AJ gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, and one ER. He added a HBP.

However, his actual performance is meaningless, at the stage in the season. I’m sure JP Riccardi is just hoping to get the 55 million dollar man healthy and ready to go. That is when AJ better bring his A game, cause the Jays need it.

You Can Steal a Gate

But don’t take offence. We may need it.

Last year the Blue Jays scored 775 runs. This was above average in the American League. However, as has been well publicized, the Fighting Jays were very fortunate to have scored that many runs. Baseball Prospectus estimates that based on our offensive production, we should have scored only 743 runs. That boils down to a positive differential of 32 runs between our actual runs scored and the amount of runs we would have been expected to score based on our offensive performance. 32 just happened to be the second highest positive differential between actual runs and expected runs in the major leagues last year (in case you’re curious, the largest positive differential was St Louis with 40.) Basically, they got lucky, and need to improve.

Toronto finished the season with a team EQA of .250, good enough for 25th place overall. However, they were only one point removed from 29^th. The Twins, with an EQA of .245 were the only team significantly worse offensively than the Jays last year.

If the Blue Jays wish to live up to Toronto’s lofty expectations this year, they are going to have to out perform the 2005 squad offensively. Thanks to the additions of Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, Bejie Molina, and regular playing time for Aaron Hill, it seems unlikely that we will once again finish with an EQA of 250. Below is a quick preview of Toronto’s 2006 line up. As well as a comparison chart of the newest ex-Jays. Contained is each players EQA, as well as their three year OPS left/right splits. At the bottom I have taken the average from each column. I then recalculated the OPS versus left/right using only those players I suspect will be the starters. Bracketed at the bottom of the OPS vs. right column is the total if Benjie Molina starts over Zaun.

I figure the line up versus righties, not necessarily in order, will be:

Adams, Cat, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Hill, Zaun/ Molina

Likewise versus lefties:

Johnson, Hill, Wells, Glaus, Hillenbrand, Molina, Rios, Overbay, Adams.

2006 Blue Jays Offensive Profile

	EQA in 2005	3 yr OPS vs. Left		Vs. Right
Russ Adams	0.259	0.584	0.762
Frank Catalanotto	0.289	0.598	0.832
Vernon Wells	0.272	0.992	0.783
Troy Glaus	0.292	0.894	0.862
Lyle Overbay	0.282	0.798	0.836
Shea Hillenbrand	0.279	0.869	0.767
Aaron Hill	0.265	0.821	0.689
Greg Zaun	0.265	0.727	0.728
Eric Hinske	0.271	0.692	0.751
Bengie Molina	0.282	0.889	0.692
Alexis Rios	0.249	0.703	0.714
Reed Johnson	0.261	0.806	0.702
John McDonald	0.249	0.586	0.587
Avg.	0.271	0.766	0.747
Projected Starters	XXX	0.806	0.779 (0.775)

Newest Ex-Jays

	EQA in 2005	3 yr OPS vs. Left	Vs. Right
Corey Koskie	0.263	0.647	0.892
Ken Huckaby	0.187	0.621	0.381
Orlando Hudson	0.261	0.616	0.785
Frank Menechino	0.258	0.822	0.693
Avg.	0.242	0.677	0.688

I’m sure it is no surprise to see that our line up projects to be stronger versus left handed pitching. Also of note, is that the cumulative .271 EQA would have placed the Jays in fourth place, just a head of the Cleveland Indians. We would have trailed division rivals the Yanks (0.276), Red Sox (0.274) and the Reds (0.272). That however, is completely arbitrary and should be taken with several grains of salt.

There are several factors which will affect the success of the Jay’s offense. I have highlighted just a few here:

- Continued development of young players. It is unlikely that the Jays will be a play off team if all three of Adams, Hill and Rios perform as they did last year. Just how good is Hill? Can Rios put his tools for good use? Is Adams a first round bust? Adams and Hill may need to peek over their shoulder this year as both Ryan Roberts and Sergio Santos will be down in Syracuse.

- Hinske’s new stance… Again. Last year was a positive step for Hinske in which he regained some effectiveness in facing right handed pitching. As it stands, our offence will need him to continue this trend. We know he has the potential. It’s just matter of him putting it together.

- Wells has a lot in common with Hinske. In addition to being Hinske’s contractual brethren, he has also been unable to live up to the promise shown early in his career. With a clean bill of health Glaus batting behind him Wells is out of excuses.

- The heart of the order should be much improved over last year as Glaus and Overbay will provide some much needed pop in the middle of the line up. They will have to do much better than Koskie and Shea did last year if the Jays hope to compete for the post season.

So what do you think about the new and improved offense?

A New Season!

Right about now I wish I could edit out that comment about me posting once a week. But that is not what bloggers do. So I must soldier on. I must say, that I never knew how to paste comments. Which makes blogging a lot more difficult. However, now I can write in Word, spell check and format, and then post my finished articles into blogger. Neat eh? Back to the blog:

Last night saw the Toronto Blue Jays win their Home Opener to improve their over all record in home openers to 22-8. In case you were wondering: Yes that is the best stat in all of baseball: and no, the outcome of the 1984 home opener has zero practical implications for last night’s game.

All and all, the game went pretty much how JP drew it up on the chalk board. Halladay went into the 8^th. Scott Schoeneweis then bridged the gap to BJ Ryan. Ryan then K’d two twins, including a terribly over matched Justin Morneau.

Along the way, every Jay batter got a hit sans Aaron Hill, though he did swing the bat well. Molina crushed a Santana offering off the upper deck facing, and Alexis Rios went the other way off of Right handed Canuck Jesse Crain.

Tomorrow, Josh Towers takes the mound, and faces off against Brad Radke.