You Can Steal a Gate

But don’t take offence. We may need it.

Last year the Blue Jays scored 775 runs. This was above average in the American League. However, as has been well publicized, the Fighting Jays were very fortunate to have scored that many runs. Baseball Prospectus estimates that based on our offensive production, we should have scored only 743 runs. That boils down to a positive differential of 32 runs between our actual runs scored and the amount of runs we would have been expected to score based on our offensive performance. 32 just happened to be the second highest positive differential between actual runs and expected runs in the major leagues last year (in case you’re curious, the largest positive differential was St Louis with 40.) Basically, they got lucky, and need to improve.

Toronto finished the season with a team EQA of .250, good enough for 25th place overall. However, they were only one point removed from 29^th. The Twins, with an EQA of .245 were the only team significantly worse offensively than the Jays last year.

If the Blue Jays wish to live up to Toronto’s lofty expectations this year, they are going to have to out perform the 2005 squad offensively. Thanks to the additions of Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, Bejie Molina, and regular playing time for Aaron Hill, it seems unlikely that we will once again finish with an EQA of 250. Below is a quick preview of Toronto’s 2006 line up. As well as a comparison chart of the newest ex-Jays. Contained is each players EQA, as well as their three year OPS left/right splits. At the bottom I have taken the average from each column. I then recalculated the OPS versus left/right using only those players I suspect will be the starters. Bracketed at the bottom of the OPS vs. right column is the total if Benjie Molina starts over Zaun.

I figure the line up versus righties, not necessarily in order, will be:

Adams, Cat, Wells, Glaus, Overbay, Hillenbrand, Hinske, Hill, Zaun/ Molina

Likewise versus lefties:

Johnson, Hill, Wells, Glaus, Hillenbrand, Molina, Rios, Overbay, Adams.

2006 Blue Jays Offensive Profile

	EQA in 2005	3 yr OPS vs. Left		Vs. Right
Russ Adams	0.259	0.584	0.762
Frank Catalanotto	0.289	0.598	0.832
Vernon Wells	0.272	0.992	0.783
Troy Glaus	0.292	0.894	0.862
Lyle Overbay	0.282	0.798	0.836
Shea Hillenbrand	0.279	0.869	0.767
Aaron Hill	0.265	0.821	0.689
Greg Zaun	0.265	0.727	0.728
Eric Hinske	0.271	0.692	0.751
Bengie Molina	0.282	0.889	0.692
Alexis Rios	0.249	0.703	0.714
Reed Johnson	0.261	0.806	0.702
John McDonald	0.249	0.586	0.587
Avg.	0.271	0.766	0.747
Projected Starters	XXX	0.806	0.779 (0.775)

Newest Ex-Jays

	EQA in 2005	3 yr OPS vs. Left	Vs. Right
Corey Koskie	0.263	0.647	0.892
Ken Huckaby	0.187	0.621	0.381
Orlando Hudson	0.261	0.616	0.785
Frank Menechino	0.258	0.822	0.693
Avg.	0.242	0.677	0.688

I’m sure it is no surprise to see that our line up projects to be stronger versus left handed pitching. Also of note, is that the cumulative .271 EQA would have placed the Jays in fourth place, just a head of the Cleveland Indians. We would have trailed division rivals the Yanks (0.276), Red Sox (0.274) and the Reds (0.272). That however, is completely arbitrary and should be taken with several grains of salt.

There are several factors which will affect the success of the Jay’s offense. I have highlighted just a few here:

- Continued development of young players. It is unlikely that the Jays will be a play off team if all three of Adams, Hill and Rios perform as they did last year. Just how good is Hill? Can Rios put his tools for good use? Is Adams a first round bust? Adams and Hill may need to peek over their shoulder this year as both Ryan Roberts and Sergio Santos will be down in Syracuse.

- Hinske’s new stance… Again. Last year was a positive step for Hinske in which he regained some effectiveness in facing right handed pitching. As it stands, our offence will need him to continue this trend. We know he has the potential. It’s just matter of him putting it together.

- Wells has a lot in common with Hinske. In addition to being Hinske’s contractual brethren, he has also been unable to live up to the promise shown early in his career. With a clean bill of health Glaus batting behind him Wells is out of excuses.

- The heart of the order should be much improved over last year as Glaus and Overbay will provide some much needed pop in the middle of the line up. They will have to do much better than Koskie and Shea did last year if the Jays hope to compete for the post season.

So what do you think about the new and improved offense?